In the current electoral context and the turmoil within the parliamentary opposition regarding the distribution of tickets, Le Défi Quotidien has brought together different elements in order to provide insight into the balance of power at stake in the country's 20 constituencies.

Constituency No. 1

During the last general elections of 2019, the PTr made a notable return to Grande-Rivière-Nord-Ouest/Port-Louis Ouest with Fabrice David, who is running for the first time, managing to climb to the top of the list. These elections also allowed Patrice Armance to confirm his popularity by being elected for the second time. This gives the PTr and PMSD a considerable advantage in positioning themselves. The MMM, for its part, will be able to argue the fact that its candidate Arianne Navarre Marie was able to be drafted thanks to the Best Loser System (BLS).

Constituency No. 2

The Port-Louis Sud/Port-Louis Center constituency comfortably saw the election of two PTr candidates, with Osman Mahomed at the top of the list and Farhad Aumeer in third position. A situation which strengthens the position of the reds in this constituency. The MMM, for its part, should emphasize the fact that its presence in this constituency is also assured, particularly with the popularity of Reza Uteem, who was elected three consecutive times.

Constituency No. 3

The PTr is banking on the presence of Shakeel Mohamed, who has established himself as a sure bet in the constituency. His election during the last three legislative elections plays strongly in his favor, as well as that of the PTr. The PMSD finds itself in a delicate situation, because despite the election of its candidate Salim Abbas Mamode in 2019, he subsequently joined the MSM. In the constituency, there is also Aadil Ameer Meea, who has performed flawlessly since the 2010 elections. The PTr, which saw Ehsan Juman being drafted through the BLS in 2019, would also intend to align him given the dynamism which he has deployed since.

Constituency No. 4

Although it has failed to elect any of its candidates since the 2014 general elections, the PTr should highlight the fact that it has a much better base compared to its two allies. Indeed, it is the red candidate Pradeep Jeha, aligned in 2019, who performed better than the MMM, which can no longer make weight in a constituency where he was previously very popular.

Constituency No. 5

The election of Ranjiv Woochit in third position in Pamplemousses/Triolet marks the return of the Reds to a constituency traditionally known as a Labor stronghold. The two other candidates aligned by the PTr were also not far from being elected. Indeed, with another 400 votes more, Jairajsing Luchoo could have aspired to a place as an MP. On the other hand, the MMM is less comfortable in this constituency. Between the best purple candidate and third place, there is a difference of around 10,000 votes.

Constituency No. 6

The Grand-Baie/Poudre d'Or constituency is another constituency which, in a certain way, testifies to a Labor revival with the election of Mahend Gungapersad, elected in second position. The two other red candidates demonstrated interesting potential, with less than 2,000 votes behind Avinash Teeluck, the MSM candidate elected in third place.

Constituency No. 7

Although it did not succeed in getting any of its candidates elected in Piton/Rivière-du-Rempart, it is the PTr which seems to have better chances in this constituency. The three candidates aligned by the PTr-PMSD alliance found themselves in 4th, 5th and 6th place, far ahead of the MMM with some 9,000 votes difference.

Constituency No. 8

The Moka/St-Pierre constituency, where the MSM has established itself significantly since the 2014 general elections, is certainly a difficult bastion for the reds, mauves and blues. However, the approximately 3,000 vote difference separating the red candidate from the third elected in the constituency is a factor on which the reds will certainly rely to obtain more nominations. The purple candidate aligned by the MMM was, for his part, only able to collect 5,698 votes, some 5,000 votes apart from the red candidates.

Constituency No. 9

Although it did not succeed in getting any of its candidates elected in Piton/Rivière-du-Rempart, it is the PTr which seems to have better chances in this constituency. The three candidates aligned by the PTr-PMSD alliance found themselves in 4th, 5th and 6th place, far ahead of the MMM with some 9,000 votes difference.

Constituency No. 10

Between Navin Ramgoolam and the MSM candidate, Sunil Bholah, there was only 638 votes difference. And once again, it was the three candidates from the PTr-PMSD alliance who found themselves in 4th, 5th and 6th place, far ahead of the candidates aligned by the MMM.

Constituency No. 11

There is no comparison between the number of votes recorded by the candidates of the PTr-PMSD alliance and those of the MMM. Although they had to settle for 4th, 5th and 6th position, it is the reds who seem closer to third place, with only some 3,000 votes difference, while the MMM has almost 10,000 votes. gap with Naveena Ramyad, MSM candidate.

Constituency No. 12

The PTr seems to confirm its roots in Mahébourg-Plaine Magnien with its deputy, Ritish Ramful, elected in first position in 2019. The PMSD, for its part, has a card to play with Richard Duval, who was elected thanks to the electoral draft of the BLS. The MMM, which is no longer able to assert itself in this constituency, had to settle for 6,120 votes, with a delay of more than 5,000 votes over the third elected member of the MSM.

Constituency No. 13

Lormus Bundhoo, PTr candidate, narrowly failed to allow the PTr to reconcile with the inhabitants of Rivière-des-Anguilles/Souillac, with only 814 votes behind the third elected MSM. The MMM, for its part, has a gap of more than 5,000 votes with the third elected member of the MSM.

Constituency No. 14

The 185 vote difference separating Ezra Jhuboo from third place, which would have allowed the PTr to have an elected representative from the Savanne/Rivière-Noire constituency, demonstrate once again that it is the reds who are in the best position to make elect at least one of their candidates.

Constituency No. 15

The La Caverne/Phoenix constituency is the only one that allowed a member of the PMSD to be elected in first position. In addition, the election of Patrick Assirvaden to No. 15 in 2019 allowed him to return to Parliament. Thus, the PMSD and the PTr seem to be in a much better position, while the MMM seems to be in a less favorable situation.

Constituency No. 16

The election of Joanna Bérenger at the top of the list allows the MMM to be in the best position to have better representation in Vacoas/Floréal. The PTr is less comfortable, because it was only thanks to the BLS that he was able to elect Stephanie Anquetil.

Constituency No. 17

Michael Sik-Yuen seems increasingly assured of his position in Curepipe-Midlands with his second election in 2019. The MMM, for its part, is struggling to regain its former success in this constituency once considered its stronghold. Even the PMSD seems to have better arguments than the purple ones in this constituency.

Constituency No. 18

The PTr seems to have been well advised by aligning Arvin Boolell at No. 18, who won two victories in 2017 and 2019 at Belle-Rose/Quatre-Bornes. For its part, although Xavier-Luc Duval was demoted to third place, the PMSD can still boast of being in a better situation than the purples, who can no longer find the winning formula in this constituency.

Constituency No. 19

The 2019 elections allowed the purples to regain color in Stanley/Rose-Hill with the election of Paul Bérenger at the top of the list. The latter was able to better reposition himself in his stronghold compared to the 2014 elections, where he came close to defeat. The election of Deven Nagalingum in second position also gives serious arguments to the MMM, unlike the PTr and the PMSD which are traditionally in difficulty at number 19.

Constituency No. 20

Indisputable in Beau-Bassin/Petite-Rivière, Rajesh Bhagwan and his two running mates allow the MMM to have the best arguments against the blues and the reds.

Key factors in the allocation of constituencies and tickets

According to various sources within the PTr-MMM-PMSD alliance, several considerations are taken into account to determine the distribution of tickets and districts between the parties, as well as the number of tickets allocated in each district. According to a senior member of the parliamentary opposition, although performance in the last elections is an important factor, other aspects are also taken into consideration. It highlights the fact that the political dynamics of a party and a candidate can evolve between two elections. For example, if a candidate's popularity in the last election declines due to scandals, his position may become uncertain and he may be denied a ticket or redirected to another constituency.

Furthermore, it is emphasized that ranking a candidate in 6th or 7th place does not necessarily mean failure. For example, the MMM, which is used to running alone in elections, nevertheless manages to gather a significant number of votes in constituencies where it is generally not strong. These votes can be useful as part of an alliance, allowing another allied party that scored higher in previous elections to improve its performance. In some cases, these MMM votes can help another allied party to be elected, or to obtain more candidates.

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