The balance of power between the government and the opposition on the sidelines of the mobilization of the May 1 rally is commented on by the political observer and former minister, Jean Claude de l'Estrac. He also gives his point of view on the turbulence which recently shook the Mauritian Social Democratic Party (PMSD).
The parliamentary opposition as well as the Militant Socialist Movement (MSM) and its allies are intensifying their mobilizations in preparation for the May 1 meeting. Do you consider that they are effective in the current electoral context?
It all depends on the desired objectives. Generally, these meetings, during an election year, aim for two major results: to mobilize and galvanize supporters and to establish a balance of power between competitors.
The larger the crowd, the more enthusiastic and supportive the supporters are, the more the organizers will be able to congratulate themselves that the operation was “effective” in terms of the electoral support sought. Although we know that successful mobilization is not always a guarantee of support at the polls.
The mobilization of the parliamentary opposition was disrupted by the split in the PMSD, which the Mauritian Militant Movement (MMM) accuses of having delayed the mobilization of the alliance. Do you think that this alliance will be affected by the absence of the PMSD during the May 1 meeting?
The departure of the PMSD from this alliance of parliamentary opposition parties has certainly slowed down their momentum somewhat. But on the other hand, we have seen a resurgence of mobilization, in particular among the supporters of the MMM who have never swallowed the Duvalists.
Then, the split and the joining of a few emblematic heads of the party to the Labor-MMM alliance strengthens it. From this point of view, the absence of the PMSD in Port-Louis is anecdotal. And if tomorrow Xavier-Luc Duval were to become Jugnauth's man, he would bury his party. I know what I mean…
The main political party that decided not to participate in the May 1 rally is the PMSD, which instead chose to organize an open day on May 5 in Grand-Gaube. Do you think that the PMSD is right to ignore this political meeting given the electoral context?
He is right not to lose face. If we are right to say that the May 1 meetings are first and foremost a match of attendance, in this case between the two main political blocs, the PMSD cannot claim to play in this league. He prefers to turn away from it.
The government argues that the parliamentary opposition alliance between the MMM and the PTr is discredited by the fact that these parties have never been able to work together sustainably in the past. Do you think that this 2024 version of the “red-purple” alliance is different from previous alliances in terms of mobilization and support at the grassroots level?
You mention two distinct subjects: the predictable durability of this alliance and the synergy of their electoral bases. On the first point, I have a thesis that I will advance with caution because political leaders are unpredictable bloodsuckers. But I think that this alliance has every chance of lasting because, both for Ramgoolam and for Bérenger, it is the election of the last chance. There won't be an after. They will have an interest in making the present moment last. Furthermore, we can remember that the alliances with Xavier-Luc Duval did not last long either.
At the level of the electoral base of both parties, despite the traumas of the past, I have the impression that the wounds have been healed even if they are not healed. This is the result of the mutual demonization that the leaders of both parties enjoyed. This is even, in my opinion, the main weakness of this alliance. The rural people hate Bérenger. Urban people don't like Ramgoolam. What I'm saying here is a bit of a caricature, but it's generally true.
Do you think that after this May 1 meeting, the Prime Minister will be in a better position to decide on the date of the elections or do you think that he already knows exactly when he will call the country to the polls?
I think that the Prime Minister, who holds all the cards in his hands, knows what he will do. But I believe that his decision will not depend on the May 1 meetings, whatever the result.
It has been almost two weeks since the PMSD is no longer part of the parliamentary opposition alliance and it has still not joined the MSM, although many observers are already considering an alliance between the blues and the sun party. When do you think this alliance between the PMSD and the MSM will materialize? What do you think would be the best timing?
I still find it difficult to envisage a return of Xavier-Luc Duval in the next government of Pravind Jugnauth after his spectacular and exemplary resignation on a question of principle, which had earned him the admiration of a large part of the population . But pushed by the hungry young wolves and the opportunists who surround him, he could give in to the sounding and stumbling sirens.
In this case, I see a good part of what remains of his electorate turning away from him. And the MSM, in this electorate, will not be able to compensate for this loss. And then a lot will depend on the conditions extracted by the PMSD to justify a possible return. They should be such as to demonstrate a real reforming and virtuous turn.
Is it correct to say that without the support of the PMSD in urban regions, the chances of the MSM in these regions are almost zero?
If the results of the 2019 legislative elections are still relevant, it is obvious that the MSM will draw most of its electoral strength from rural constituencies but that it will seek to glean a few seats in urban areas, counting on its allies Obeegadoo and Collendavelloo .
It's a risky bet. This is where the PMSD can, theoretically, be of some assistance. But I have serious doubts about Xavier-Luc Duval's ability to convert his supporters to support the MSM after his own denunciations.
The arrival of the PMSD in an alliance with the government could probably lead to a step back in the hierarchy for figures such as Alan Ganoo and Ivan Collendavelloo. Do you think this could be a source of tension?
Source of frustration perhaps. But what will they be able to do? Buddha said: “If the problem has a solution, there is no point in worrying, but if there is no solution, worrying will not change anything. »
While the parliamentary opposition has constantly repeated since 2019 that Pravind Jugnauth's days are numbered, the latter continues to highlight his optimism to defeat the opposition. What do you think gives Pravind Jugnauth so much confidence?
In politics, optimism is a communication posture. But it must also be recognized that the Prime Minister is presenting himself in his elections with a record likely to earn him the support of part of the population.
His dual mandate had two distinct facets.
On a social level, even if this was done by squandering the reserves planned for our children, it brought undeniable relief to certain categories of the population, more particularly the elderly. Today they are his surest support. Infrastructure projects, even if expensive and deficient, earn him certain credit.
On the other hand, it has failed, and seriously, in terms of good governance. Over the course of his term, he transformed into a cynical and arrogant autocrat who presided over the politicization and withering of many institutions supposed to operate in complete independence. Interference, interference, political and extrapolitical pressure, including on a certain private sector so quick to fold, produced a change of regime. The question of the next elections is an old issue: the wallet or morality?
