The French began voting on Sunday in mainland France for the first round of highly suspenseful legislative elections which could pave the way for the far right to come to power in a week.
After some overseas territories on Saturday, polling stations opened at 8 a.m. in mainland France.
“These are not easy elections, the results are very uncertain, the repercussions could be serious for society,” commented Julien Martin, a 38-year-old architect, in Bordeaux.
“I'm very worried, I don't understand what's happening, why we got to this point,” noted Amalia, a designer who partied last night and decided to go vote before going to bed.
The anxiety and excitement were also palpable in Lyon.
“We are afraid of the future, it is really decisive, there are choices that we would not want,” noted Christiane, a 73-year-old retiree. In the city center, some traders protected the windows of their stores, closed on Sundays, for fear of damage.
Several political figures have already gone to the polls. RN president Jordan Bardella voted in Garches in Hauts-de-Seine, Marine Tondelier, the leader of the environmentalists, in Hénin-Beaumont in Pas-de-Calais, former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe (Horizons) in his city of Le Havre in Seine-Maritime.
Former close friends of Jean-Luc Mélenchon who have fallen into disgrace, the outgoing deputies, Raquel Garrido and Alexis Corbière, who campaigned under the banner of the New Popular Front against official candidates from La France insoumise, voted in Bagnolet, in Seine-Saint -Denis.
The French can go to the polls until 6:00 p.m. or 8:00 p.m. in large cities, the time when the first results of this election likely to shake up the political landscape will emerge.
Embodied by the smooth face of Jordan Bardella, 28 years old, the National Rally is riding high in the polls, which credit it with 34 to 37% of voting intentions, with the unprecedented prospect of obtaining a relative or absolute majority on July 7, the evening of the second round.
According to these opinion polls, which should be taken with caution as uncertainty remains high, the Le Pen party is ahead of the left-wing alliance of the New Popular Front, given between 27.5 and 29%, and the presidential camp, relegated to around 20 to 21% of voting intentions.
If Jordan Bardella entered Matignon, it would be the first time since the Second World War that a government from the extreme right would lead France. The president of the RN, however, warned that he would only accept the post of Prime Minister if his party holds an absolute majority.
Otherwise, the risk of a blocked Assembly, without the possibility of an alliance between very polarized camps, is real, a scenario which would plunge France into the unknown.
Emmanuel Macron caused a political earthquake on June 9, by announcing, to everyone's surprise, after the rout of his camp in the European elections, the dissolution of the National Assembly, an ultra-risky bet.
Despite its internal differences, the left managed in the following days to resuscitate a coalition agreement. But the disagreements between La France Insoumise and its partners, over the contested leadership of Jean-Luc Mélenchon in particular, quickly resurfaced and often parasitized the campaign of this New Popular Front.
During this time, nothing seemed to slow down the momentum of the National Rally campaigning on purchasing power and against immigration: neither the vagueness on the repeal of Emmanuel Macron's pension reform, nor the controversies over binationals, or the sulphurous comments of certain RN candidates on social networks.
– Strong participation –
Will the French thwart the pollsters' predictions at the end of these three weeks of lightning campaign?
A strong turnout is expected. It could be around 67% of the approximately 49 million registered voters, significantly higher than the 47.51% of the first round of the 2022 legislative elections.
More than 2.6 million proxies have been issued since June 10, according to the Interior Ministry, a number four times higher than the number two years ago over a comparable period.”
“The proxies don’t stop,” commented an assessor in Lyon.
In New Caledonia, where polling stations are now closed, participation jumped (32.4% at midday Sunday compared to 13.06% at noon local in 2022).
Also increase in participation at local midday in French Polynesia: 18% compared to 15.8% in 2022.
The lessons from the first round could be difficult to draw, as there are so many unknowns. Starting with the number of three-way races on Sunday evening, expected to rise sharply again, and the number of withdrawals during the inter-round period, while the constitution of a Republican front against the extreme right has continued to crack over the years.
But it is among the Macronists that the pressure is strongest. Emmanuel Macron promised Thursday “the greatest clarity” on the attitude to follow, but until now seemed to lean more towards “neither RN, nor LFI”, castigated by the left and criticized even in his own camp.
On Monday, he will bring together Prime Minister Gabriel Attal and members of the government at the Elysée, according to ministerial sources. The questions of withdrawals and the strategy facing the National Rally will necessarily be on the menu of discussions.
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