The unrest of most of April, marked by arduous negotiations within the parliamentary opposition to form an alliance, gave rise to new dynamics, notably with the emergence of the New Democrats party. The withdrawal of the PMSD from the alliance considerably hampered the mobilization of the MMM and the PTr, to the benefit of the government which now seems to approach the May 1 political rally with a certain confidence.
The Mauritian Social Democratic Party (PMSD) seems to have been the most impacted by the recent political turbulence which shook the parliamentary opposition, notably with the split with the Mauritian Militant Movement (MMM) and the Labor Party (PTr). While the members of the PMSD have benefited, in recent years, from the aura of their leader, Xavier-Luc Duval, and his 135 Private Notice Questions (PNQ), their national influence today seems compromised. The comments of various political observers, as well as the reactions expressed in particular against former MP Adrien Duval on social networks, demonstrate that the departure of the Blues from the parliamentary opposition alliance was not favorable to their cause .
Many observers believe that the PMSD will sooner or later be forced to join the Militant Socialist Movement (MSM). It is also underlined that the Blues will encounter enormous difficulties in convincing their electorate of their decision to associate with the MSM, a party against which they have fought ardently since leaving the government in 2016.
In the eyes of several observers, a possible alliance between the MSM and the PMSD would mean that the Blues would now be ready to accept the Financial Crimes Commission, which is accused of usurping several roles from the Director of Public Prosecutions (DPP). This same office of the DPP that they wanted to protect from the Prosecution Commission, which could have compromised its independence.
The most visible aftereffect that the PMSD has suffered since its departure from the parliamentary opposition alliance is undoubtedly the fact that around twenty members of the party immediately decided to slam the door. These resignations, which include the departure of deputies Richard Duval and Khushal Lobine, among others, mean that the PMSD is today reduced to only two deputies who have been relegated to the background since the start of the parliamentary term.
If the PMSD has so far denied any contact with the MSM, while leaving the possibility open of an alliance with the Sun Party, it is clear that the Blues no longer have the same strength they had when they were in alliance with the MMM and the PTr. Thus, in any ticket negotiation situation with the MSM, they will find themselves in an even more unfavorable position than before.
On the MSM side, according to several sources, although an alliance with the PMSD remains on the table, it is emphasized that the PMSD, without its elected officials like Khushal Lobine and Richard Duval, is clearly weakened.
Political observer Milan Meetarbhan has long pointed out that the PMSD's departure from the parliamentary opposition alliance would inevitably have a psychological impact. “I said that because an alliance that manages to create a new dynamic in its ranks and sees its momentum stopped can have a psychological impact,” he explains. The speaker takes the liberty of asking the following question: “Will the new configuration allow the new ally of the PMSD to obtain more seats in the next elections? » “I doubt it,” he said.
The PMSD has faced hemorrhaging since its departure from the parliamentary opposition alliance. Kris Valaydon maintains, however, that the blue base will end up siding with the leadership, whatever the choice of political alliance that is made. According to him, the psychology of PMSD supporters and activists is similar to that of other parties: the faithful will follow the leader, the one who holds the party emblem. Thus, whatever the choice of leader Xavier-Luc Duval, the supporters will approve of it.
Kris Valaydon considers that the PMSD is “opportunistic” and that it will enter into an alliance with the political party that it considers most likely to win the elections. In this situation, it is “unlikely” that Xavier-Luc Duval will enter into an alliance “with emerging or extra-parliamentary parties, whose base in the electorate remains to be established”. The negotiations between the PMSD and the extra-parliamentary parties are part of a tactic aimed at strengthening Duval's bargaining power with Jugnauth. Thus, it is more likely that the PMSD, realistic and opportunistic, will enter into an alliance with the MSM in order to benefit from all the electoral campaign arsenal available to the latter.
He emphasizes, however, that in the current context, time is not in favor of Xavier-Luc Duval's PMSD. The very firm positions taken against the Jugnauth government are still fresh in the collective memory. Anyone who has criticized Jugnauth aggressively and consistently for years will find it difficult to turn the tide and convince his own supporters that his past statements were wrong. “It will be difficult for Xavier Luc Duval to reevaluate the image he painted in black for years. It is likely that during the next electoral campaign, video clips showing Xavier-Luc Duval strongly criticizing the government during his numerous press conferences and speeches to the National Assembly will reappear. he thinks.
What implications for the parliamentary opposition as a whole?
The departure of the PMSD from the parliamentary opposition alliance logically seems to increase divisions within the opposition. Which, in theory, could be favorable to the government. However, Milan Meetarbhan prefers to take another point of view. He affirms that “this new configuration can offer better prospects to the parliamentary opposition”.
According to him, there is the possibility of a broader regrouping of the opposition with the departure of the PMSD. Milan Meetarbhan argues that theoretically it would be easier for the MMM and PTr to accommodate elements of the parliamentary opposition, but this will require negotiations and common agreement, thus paving the way for a broader opposition. He even goes so far as to suggest that the departure of the PMSD from the alliance can potentially lead to the emergence of an independent personality who, taking advantage of the space left by the Blues, could be propelled to the forefront.
“The departure of the PMSD from the alliance offers an opportunity to promote the political development of the country,” says Kris Valaydon. The political observer advocates for the integration of emerging parties and the extra-parliamentary opposition into the Mauritian political ecosystem.
According to him, it is desirable for the alliance between the Labor Party and the MMM to accommodate extra-parliamentary parties, including Rezistans ek Alternativ, Linion Moris and other extra-parliamentary forces. According to him, “these forces represent a new energy in the Mauritian political landscape and could bring a new dimension to the management of power”.
He acknowledges that negotiations could be difficult, but he insists on the importance of finding a compromise so that these extra-parliamentary forces, which bring ideas and new energy, can integrate into the political mainstream. This would be beneficial not only for winning elections due to their influence on the voting results, but more importantly for their contribution as sources of inspiration and new ideas in a future government.
