Now that the 2024-25 Budget has been presented, its political significance is giving rise to numerous debates. The question on many minds is whether he gives enough of a boost to the government to face the next general election.
The Budget recently presented by Finance Minister Renganaden Padayachy has been touted by government strategists as an electoral trump card for the Militant Socialist Movement (MSM). After a moderate speech by Prime Minister Pravind Jugnauth, in Vacoas on May 1, where few announcements were made, various collaborators within the government apparatus clearly suggested that the most strategic announcements would be reserved for the presentation of the Budget 2024-25.
The least we can say is that it clearly focused on several key segments of the electorate. It includes a substantial increase in retirement pensions, with Rs 500 more from July 1 and another increase of Rs 500 planned from January 2025. Social benefits for different income levels have also been increased and a notable reduction in the price of household gas has been announced.
However, despite these positive measures, the Budget also left many citizens wanting more. Popular expectations, particularly regarding a reduction in fuel prices and the granting of a 14th month's salary, have not been met. This raises the question of whether he succeeded in generating the feel-good factor necessary to allow the government to consider general elections after the dissolution of the National Assembly scheduled for July.
Observer and historian Jocelyn Chan Low believes that we will have to wait until July to truly assess the impact of the budgetary measures announced by the Chief Financial Officer. He emphasizes that it is only from next month that the old age pension will actually be increased and that Mauritians will begin to receive increases in social benefits. “So far there have only been speeches. It is only after Mauritians have received these promised increases in their pockets that we will know if these measures have created a feeling of well-being,” he says.
The historian also points out that the government has not yet played all its cards. According to him, the publication of the report on salary realignment is a political card which should have a significant impact on thousands of employees. “As for the possible payment of a 14th month, the government could still announce it in its electoral manifesto,” he adds. He specifies that elections will have to be seriously anticipated once the report on salary realignment has been made public.
Ram Seegobin, a member of the left-wing political party Lalit, expressed scathing criticism of the 2024-25 Budget. He calls it electoralist, highlighting measures focused on social benefits and pensions as temporary gimmicks.
For him, the brutal economic reality quickly catches up with Mauritians once they face price increases in supermarkets. “This Budget represents only a fleeting illusion,” he declared, stressing that many citizens are faced with galloping inflation which is quickly canceling out the proclaimed benefits of government measures.
“This disparity between budgetary promises and real economic challenges constitutes a major source of concern,” he adds. Ram Seegobin finally emphasizes that the Budget is limited to distributing gifts to certain specific segments of the electorate, without addressing much deeper concerns.
Pressing challenges
According to him, the government is failing to respond to pressing challenges, such as the looming food security crisis and job insecurity. He believes that the Budget should have “adopted a more holistic approach, integrating long-term solutions to truly strengthen the country’s economic and social resilience”. He adds that there is, on the other hand, “a prioritization of short-term political gains to the detriment of the essential needs of the population”.
Abdallah Goolamallee, lecturer and political observer, highlights the build-up orchestrated by the opposition around the recently presented Budget. According to him, the opposition deliberately influenced public opinion to make this Budget perceived as electoralist. “Through several slogans and accusations of demagoguery, the opposition sought to shape a negative perception of the Budget,” he asserts.
Commenting on the social measures presented and described as labous dou by the opposition, Abdallah Goolamallee especially insists on the fact that the government has maintained consistency in its social philosophy over the past five years. Examining the last four Budgets, despite the Covid-19 crises, he believes that all have shown a certain consistency in their social approach: “Each previous Budget has been aligned with socialist principles, highlighting the needs of different categories of the population: elderly people, women, children and employees. Thus, the government has chosen to maintain this social continuity. »
