After the unprecedented score of the National Rally in the first round of the legislative elections, the left and Macron's party are calling for withdrawals in the second round, which are being put in place with difficulty in an attempt to prevent the far right from having an absolute majority on the evening of July 7.
On Sunday, the navy blue wave broke again with more than 10.6 million votes, or 33.14% of the vote, a historic level – excluding the second round of the 2022 presidential election.
The presidential camp confirms the rout of the Europeans, arriving in third position, with 20.04% of the votes.
Buoyed by a turnout of 66.71%, the National Rally struck a major blow, electing 39 deputies in the first round, starting with Marine Le Pen in her stronghold of Pas-de-Calais. The same goes for her lieutenants Sébastien Chenu (Nord), Julien Odoul (Yonne), Edwige Diaz (Gironde) and Laure Lavalette (Var).
The party with the flame, allied with Eric Ciotti, is thus in the lead in 296 constituencies out of 577.
With 27.99%, the New Popular Front already has 32 elected officials, including the rebellious Manuel Bompard, Mathilde Panot and Clémentine Autain, as well as the socialist Olivier Faure and the ecologist Sandrine Rousseau.
Exit, on the other hand, the boss of the communist party Fabien Roussel, swept away by the RN tidal wave in the North, while the maverick François Ruffin finds himself in a complicated toss-up in the Somme even if he will benefit from the withdrawal of the candidate “Together for the Republic”.
– How many triangular ones? –
An example among many others of the dilemma posed to the Macronists and the left, in the more than 300 constituencies in a potential triangular situation – or even quadrangular in a handful of cases.
The presidential camp still remains divided.
Coming in third place, the candidate ministers Sabrina Agresti-Roubache and Marie Guévenoux thus chose to withdraw in favor of the extreme right.
And several Renaissance candidates have already announced their withdrawal, such as outgoing MP Jean-Pierre Pont (Pas-de-Calais) who called to “beat the RN”.
But some representatives of the ex-majority, like the Minister Delegate in charge of Communities Dominique Faure, refuse to withdraw, believing that they have more reserves of votes than the left to beat the National Rally.
The candidates still in the running have until Tuesday 6:00 p.m. to decide whether or not to remain.
– “Cacophony” –
On the New Popular Front side, the parties have already given a clear instruction: any candidate coming in third place must withdraw.
But for La France Insoumise, this will only apply where the RN “came out on top”, specified Jean-Luc Mélenchon.
Manuel Bompard thus indicated that La France Insoumise would not withdraw, for example, in the constituency of Gérald Darmanin, who is just ahead of the party with the flame.
As a gesture of goodwill, the rebellious candidate of the 6th constituency of Calvados announced his withdrawal in favor of the former Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne. “We are going to save her,” even affirmed the leader of the PS Olivier Faure.
The left, however, does not refrain from denouncing the “cacophony” within the majority, which is struggling to express a single position on the second round between those who, like Edouard Philippe, want neither the RN nor LFI+ and those, like the former minister Clément Beaune, who have called for people to withdraw for the New Popular Front, including for an LFI candidate.
The Minister of the Economy, Bruno Le Maire, thus called on Monday to vote in the second round of the legislative elections for “a candidate from the social-democratic camp” without including LFI, to the great displeasure of the environmentalist Marine Tondelier who denounced “cowardly and privileged behavior”.
Rather than the “disastrous project” of the RN, it is the line defended by the current tenant of Matignon, Gabriel Attal, who also recognized that “this will involve the withdrawal of (its) candidates” in “third position “.
But only to benefit “another candidate who defends the values of the Republic”, he added, stressing that the presidential camp will constitute “the best choice to prevent the RN from having an absolute majority”.
To discuss these withdrawals, Emmanuel Macron, who called for a “broad, clearly democratic and republican gathering”, summoned his ministers to the Elysée at 12:00 p.m.
– Relative majority or grand coalition –
As things stand, the pollsters' projections predict a large relative majority of at least 240 seats for Jordan Bardella's troops, or even a short absolute majority of up to 295 seats.
But these projections are made before withdrawals.
According to the political scientist, “the starting point is rather on a relative majority than an absolute majority”. This is what the Paris Stock Exchange anticipates, which has rebounded.
To counter a relative majority of the RN, several leaders of the current majority, such as Yaël Braun-Pivet, have already called for a “grand coalition” of communists and LR the day after July 7.
Socialist Olivier Faure said he was “sensitive” to the suspension of the unemployment insurance reform announced Sunday evening by Gabriel Attal.
But, if Jordan Bardella had declared before the first round that he would not go to Matignon without an absolute majority, Sébastien Chenu seemed to qualify this position.
“We will have to look at the configuration of the National Assembly. If there is indeed support to be found, we will assume our responsibilities before the French people,” he declared.
On the National Union.
As is customary, newly elected parliamentarians will be able to go to the Assembly from 2 p.m.
